A Regional economic research firm, Econometer Global Capital has forecast a 7,2% growth rate for Zimbabwe in 2012 with mining, agriculture and manufacturing expected to contribute 63,5% of GDP.

The firm estimates mining growth to reach 27%, agriculture 19% and manufacturing 17,5% with other sectors of the economy contributing the remainder.

In its global outlook report on Zimbabwe, the research firm said government’s projected economic growth for 2012 of 9,4% may not be attainable given the state of some strategic economic pillars, highlighting that outlined statistics for different sectors projected by the Finance Ministry tend to conflict with the overall growth rate and should have envisaged a 6,5% GDP growth instead of 9,4%.

Econometer Global Capital Head of Research, Mr Takunda Mugaga attributed differences in government forecast and his firm’s forecast to in-house economic models which economists make use of.
 
The outlook for the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) is expected to remain bearish in 2012 with market capitalisation anticipated to close the year at US$4,1 billion whilst the worst case scenario will see market capitalisation slumping to US$3,75 billion.

 

Econometer Global Capital noted that there was no sign of implementation of the Medium Term Plan (MTP) unveiled last year while there are already policy reversals in implementation of the 2012 budget with predicted revenue expectations already compromised by the 25% surcharge tax which can be revised downwards any time soon.

Other major highlights of the outlook report include year end inflation rate of 8,3%, manufacturing capacity utilisation averaging 61%, banking sector aggregate deposits of US$4,1 billion by year end and a national external debt reaching US$9,2 billion.